Recession signal (Sahm rule)
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
0.00 ptsSeptember 2026
Lower than 61% of readings in the last 10 years.
Below the Sahm rule threshold of 0.5.
History
0.00 ptsSep 2026
- Since August 2026
- +0.07 pts
- Over a year (vs September 2025)
- -0.23 pts
- Range, last 10 years
- -0.37 pts to 9.50 pts
What this measures
How far the recent unemployment rate has risen above its low over the past year.
How to read it
A reading of 0.5 or more has marked the start of every US recession since 1970.
