Global Oil Market Shifts to Surplus Despite Middle East Disruptions

• Global oil markets have shifted to a supply surplus, exceeding demand by 1.4 million barrels a day last month.
• Supply surplus is driven by Middle Eastern exports returning to prewar levels.
• JPMorgan estimated the surplus, while HSBC forecasts a jump in Saudi output in Q4.
• Middle East oil market metrics indicate near-term supply is outpacing demand for the first time since July.
• Soaring output in the region has led to weakening oil prices.